WRONG_WOEID WRONG_WOEID

Browne and the Numbers Game

Browne and the Numbers GameDear Editor. So leader of the opposition Gaston Browne's signature plan, if he wins the upcoming general elections, will be to build 500 homes in 500 days, and to write off APUA's debts to delinquent clients.

Browne's claim to fame is his time spent at the Swiss American Bank.

He is supposed to be a numbers man, at least that is what he wants the voting public, and by extension the general public, to believe about him.

Notwithstanding his promise of taking the Ministry of Finance, to ensure that members of his government do not "steal," he thinks he is the "sharpest tool in the barn" when it comes to the economy and financing.

Okay, let's just examine Browne's numbers system.



Before that, why not take a look at Browne's failed attempt at running his supermarket, which incidentally he took many months away from politics to get right.

Remember Browne showed very little interest in challenging former prime minister Lester Bird for leadership of the ABLP while he was getting his supermarket up and running?

Well I must be careful here, because now that the supermarket has failed, Browne tells anyone who does not know any better that the business "actually belonged" to his son.

I'm not sure that Browne really wants anyone to believe that he invested hundreds of thousands of dollars into a business and handed it to a business novice of a son.

True or false on who ran the supermarket will always be a burden that Browne may not be able to shake off.
Was it Browne who failed, or did he hand the business to his son, who was destined to fail due to his lack of business sense?

Whatever the answer, Browne shows an inability to lead this country.

How could he handle the finances of the country with a budget of almost a billion dollars when he could not run a supermarket, which some people may have referred to as a 'huge corner store"?

If he did hand over the business to his son, then one would have to seriously question his judgement and his decision making.

On pure numbers, let's examine the 500 homes in 500 days.

Whether or not the homes can be built in the prescribed time is not an issue. Obviously, almost anything can be done once the financing is available.

Browne promised to employ 2,500 people to accomplish his dream project. So, 2,500 persons working for 500 days at a minimum of EC$100 per day is EC$125 M.

And that's not taking into consideration other costs including infrastructure, land, materials, architectural design, and all other costs associated with a housing development.

Easily, the cost associated with Browne's dream project may be as much as EC$200 M.

Where will Browne get this money?

Oh yes, Medical Benefits.


Or perhaps Browne will, as he said in the past, beg the government of the People's Republic of China for a US$500 M loan.

Why would anyone trust Browne to handle the country's finances, especially at a time when we are coming out of the worst financial crisis in decades?

Browne's plans do not make any economic sense, at least not to me.

The opposition leader has lamented that the economy is drowning in debt under the UPP, yet his first order of business is to pile on more debt or raid MBS.

At the same time, Browne will get rid of personal income tax, which mainly affects just a little over 600 people.

Browne may be a good speaker, but when it comes to handling this nation's economy, that may be way above his pay grade.




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26 Comments In This Article   

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FINANCIAL ADVISER & ECONOMICS 101

#26 OUTOFANTIGUA » 2014-06-01 16:40

Sign me up , but meanwhile we the people will take the 1980 to the 2000 era over the last 10 years of UPP's slide into purgatory. where have you been Financial Adviser didn't u realize the UPP Demons was released since 2009? and now the wizard Gaston is here to drive them back down and Out. COME OVER INTO OUR MACEDONIA AND HELP US...
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OUTOFANTIGUA

Antigua Sun of the soil

#25 tenman » 2014-05-31 08:21

Antigua son of the soil, let me draw your attention to the attachment in www.Caribarena.com/antigua/news/latest/102877-poor-response-to-social-security-proposals.html. Its a presentation by the SS actuary. He points out that for the years you are claiming great growth, the yields on SS investments declined significantly (below inflation). Recall even seeing a sworn affidavit from the APUA GM, where he points out that APUA was basically catching hell, when the economy was supposed to be growing. The point is what you call growth is actually cancer. Its government spending tax payers moneys, some from statutory corps, on things which return no value.
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tenman

@ Inquiring Minds

#24 Meigo Man » 2014-05-30 23:31

Ignorance is bliss! Just the first correction! Every person will not be working every day! Divide the 500 by 7 and multiply by 5 - seven days a week and five working days.

By the way - Smarty Pants - the UPP in one of their manifestos said they would build 6000 homes in 1825 days! Where were you to pull them up? :-x :-x :-x
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Meigo Man

decimal

#23 Ramboo » 2014-05-30 22:44

Messenger and Financial advisor, you are very dishonest. Gaston did say 2500 jobs but it should have been 250; 50 contractors in teams of 5, each building 10 houses. The scenario you describe assumes the each work will only build one house in teams of five and that house will take 500 days to complete. The scenario is absurd to say the least. $15M is a more reasonable value for the labour cost.
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Ramboo

RE: Browne and the Numbers Game

#22 Antigua Son of soil » 2014-05-30 20:42

The GDP grew from 2.3 billion in 2004 to 3.6 billion in 2008. that was a whopping 56% increase. In 2013 the GDP was 3.2 billion or 11% below what it was in 2008. Note that the GDP is still 39% higher than what it was in 2004. That 56% increase in GDP from 2004 to 2008 was the highest growth rate ever in the history of Antigua and Barbuda in any 4 year period. it virtually wiped out unemployment. The 11% difference between 2008 and 2013 did see job lost, however not to the extent that ALP is putting it. As a matter of fact there are at least 7000 more persons working today than in 2004.
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Antigua Son of soil

@ boo skyewill

#21 another skyewill fan » 2014-05-30 18:52

I thought you would say skyewill a lie but telling truth is not bragging. You just jealous and bad minded. The man qualifies himself to talk ligit on the subject. If a one white man. @ Skye because of you we voting ALP
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another skyewill fan

RE: Browne and the Numbers Game

#20 tenman » 2014-05-30 18:03

The messenger the figures I am told came from ss. The government admits we have seen a decline of some 20 percent in GDP why is it so hard for you to see GDP declines will a effect the unemployment rate?
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tenman

Gaston got it right

#19 Boo Skyewill » 2014-05-30 17:20

Skyewill, you were dying to boast about how great and wonderful you are. Did you have to use Gaston to do this? You are a pathetic, egotistical bore. Go look for your ribbons elsewhere.
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Boo Skyewill

Hypocrites

#18 Two Cents » 2014-05-30 14:51

All those who are attacking Browne's credibility are a bunch of blind and deaf people. At present you have a Prime Minister who is incapable of even saying a figure and that seem to be more acceptable to you all than someone who has a clue. Your blinded allegiance to a tried and failed organization has obviously affected your thinking. Mr Spencer is a failure as a leader, hopefully that fact will be evident come election day.
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Two Cents

RE: Browne and the Numbers Game

#17 tinetine » 2014-05-30 14:46

if you guys don't believe what Gaston Said that means my people give up hope ...it can be done .....ANTIGAUNS AND BARBUDANS WE CAN DO ALL THINGS CHRIST....look at our flag let it blow with pride again ........Gaston your shoes burning with speed like Bolt , Brain got speed .............. :roll: i believe oh i believe it can be done
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tinetine

Gaston has it right

#16 skyewill » 2014-05-30 14:03

The problem will be if he is pulling a UPP, OVER PROMISE UNDER DELIVER, only time can tell. His ideas will stabilize the country and motivate the m**. I was CEO/CFO for Florida Capital. (FC) A corresponding lender/ Broker. Prior I was AVP Commercial Markets Acquisition/Relation ship manager for one of the world’s largest commercial banks. FC brokered for Lehman Brothers, had multiple relations i.e. Bank of America + 30 others and Community development Financial Institutions (CDFI’s) I underwrote development projects and is one of the creators of the Miami Enterprise zones. had the privilege to underwrite the concrete work on the AA arena, where Black men who were incarcerated got the opportunity to get real work with real pay so they could uplift themselves. I have done investment projects in China, located a factory bought it to the USA and reassembled. Africa I assisted in a waste to energy project. Created the process of using Debit cards for Micro Business USA and Partnership for Self-Employment so Minority businesses can access loan proceeds. I saw the financial crisis coming and Antigua would be a great escape. They taxed, spent and wasted when conservative behavior would have pulled us through. Many bright Antiguans the very best in their fields and wanted to assist. This government in order to cover up their ineptness, set picks, blocks and screens to keep them out. HERE IS WHY: We found them out like Mr. Skepple. BUT TOO LATE! ALL of you know.
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skyewill

Economy of scale

#15 sitco » 2014-05-30 11:37

The messenger, please google economies of scale.
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sitco

@ Meigo Man

#14 Inquiring Minds » 2014-05-30 11:34

It is little wonder that you are a supporter of Gaston, for, like him, you just pull numbers out of the air, and quote them as Gospel. For example, you state that
"more important, is the fact that 10,000 private sector workers have lost their jobs here in the last ten years!". This figure is a figment of your crazed imagination, and can be disproved by statistics available from Board of Education, Medical Benefits or Social Security, regarding contributors to these institutions. But, like your leader, you are not interested in the truth.

That's why he claims that his 500 houses in 500 days will create 2,500 jobs. If we accept his number as accurate, it means the labour cost alone would (as stated in this opinion piece) amount to $125 million or $250,000 per house. When you add the cost of materials and other overheads, the cost would be beyond the means of most citizens.

It's about time that we examine the numbers, and stop allowing politicians to give us a six for a nine.
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Inquiring Minds

@ Financial adviser

#13 skyewill » 2014-05-30 10:25

Fair enough, I understand. I really do. My Neck is on the line right now, "ME NO FRAID" as long as I tell the truth and willing to fight let it rain.
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skyewill

@ Mr. Byam

#12 skyewill » 2014-05-30 10:21

I am in somewhat in agreement. I said before and here it is again. 200 houses & Complete all the unfinished projects first tighten up the healthcare system/MSJMC, then analyze. I can see even more HOMES/housing UNITS than the 500, if it is done by private persons with government incentives. Keep in mind that the 500 houses will not be built by government. The first building I ever built, I built completely in 3 weeks with the help of villagers and friends. Attitude is everything!
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skyewill

," he thinks he is the "sharpest tool in the barn

#11 skyewill » 2014-05-30 10:11

YOU ARE WHAT AND WHO YOU THINK YOU ARE. Every wonder how a guy likes Danny DeVito becomes a big Movie/TV Star? His is short, he is not handsome and he is not Brad Pitt but in his mind he is a big star. You as an individual have the ability to create your own reality and no one but you can define you. Browne may think he is the sharpest tool in the box and that is a good thing. This of course is not the mindset of self-defeating, self-hating individuals with no self-confidence. Browne is confident in what he has learned both in his education and in his experiences. When the Wright Brothers built the Flying Machine everybody laugh and when Noah built the Ark they laugh at that to. Every major change for the betterment has been criticized. Innovative thinking has always taken a beating but guess what…IT WORKS. Why do our people always want to take everybody else’s advice and not embrace our own is beyond me. The energy level in Browne is FANTASTIC and Refreshing. He brings a new HOPE of DIFFERENT and at least we know we need different. “ROCK AND ROLL GASTON BROWNE” keep thinking positive about yourself.
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skyewill

RE: Browne and the Numbers Game

#10 The Messenger » 2014-05-30 09:55

The Hon. Opposition Leader really didn't calculate this pie in the sky dream. Let us make a basic calculation to determine whether or not these houses are affordable to the common person.
2500 employees X $100.00 per day X 500 days= E.C. $ 125,000,000.00 which is the total cost for labour ( not factoring the social security, medical benefits, education levy which has to be paid)
E.C.$125,000,000.00 divided by 500 homes= E.C.$250,000.00 per home ( labour cost alone). We need to add the cost of material,and other professional fees which for the sake of simplicity is about 50% of the labour cost, in this case $125,000.00, and the value of the land E.C. $5.00 per sq. ft. X 5,000 sq ft= E.C.$25,000.00.
The total cost of these miracle homes would be E.C.$ 400,000.00 ( extremely conservative).
Who would be able to purchase these "affordable" homes, maybe his special friends like Axxt Mxxhxxl, Rxbxn Yxxrwxxd, Mxxwyn Jxxeph who are the only people who could afford them. They would probably rent them to the poor people of Antigua.We will be back to the 1980s and 90s. thanks to Gaston Browne.
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The Messenger

@Skyewill

#9 Financial adviser » 2014-05-30 09:14

Hurry up!

I promise to give you all my personal details including name, address, telephone number and schools IF ALL the ''man'' on here will give theirs (meaning Meigo MAN, Gray Farm MAN, tenMAN (or woman) ), for i don't want your MASTER LEADER to 'tun' crazy 'pan' me, because I know he can be vindictive, considering that you all know for a fact HE WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER.
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Financial adviser

Stick to the facts CC

#8 Mr Byam » 2014-05-30 08:26

In every country on the planet, most businesses fail most startups fail, so most business men have one or two failed startups under their belt before they finally succeed if they ever do. As Tenman pointed out, if the UPP’s housing plan has already failed, why would any government even think about spending millions more directly or indirectly on 500 more homes that will only sit empty for lizards and cassie. There is no demand for these homes. The squatters are only interested in free house, land, and current. Gaston “it wasn’t me” Browne needs to focus manufactured products that we can export to Caricom.
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Mr Byam

Financial adviser Fraud

#7 Skyewill » 2014-05-30 08:15

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D. I don't have the time right now on my way to important stuff. I will introduce myself and qualify myself, then expose you imposter. For this is my subject! I challenge you to identify yourself imposter, before I get back. And for those of you who don't know, google me, Also know as Skye Williams

George-Skye Williams
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Skyewill

Meigo Man

#6 tenman » 2014-05-30 07:30

Meigo Man, you are forgetting Brother B's restaurant? Used to enjoy the food there. Ok yes it failed and so also did the hotel he promised to build. More importantly we cant forget his failed housing schemes. So what has Brother B been most successful at? Probably making gruff noise, destroying government property, and driving badly (figuratively and literally)

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tenman

Gaston ideas are like google

#5 sitco » 2014-05-30 07:09

In 1996 a search engine company name google was created, it is now the most valuable company on planet earth.Google offers all types of free features for use, like free email and free search and as a result increase its value. Gaston Brown on the other hand will provide us with "operation jump start" which will cause rapid economic growth in our Country.Voting ABLP!
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sitco

@ Concerned citizen

#4 Meigo Man » 2014-05-30 07:02

"Browne's plans do not make any economic sense, at least not to me."

Yep...the proverbial "me"! If you are so independent in your criticism, why not sign your name? It is clear the bias in your little tirade!

However, more important, is the fact that 10,000 private sector workers have lost their jobs here in the last ten years! Many businesses have failed...is it because they are all ignorant of business?

In Antigua the billions (with a "B") have been divvied out to UPP hacks...I guess you'd refer to these unscrupulous UPP hacks as "successful" businessmen?

Which one of the UPP Candidates have ever tried to start a business? The answer is none!
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Meigo Man

Exploring the mind of cc the 'magic'ian

#3 tenman » 2014-05-30 06:16

CC, from day one Browne made clear he was not running the supermarket. During the promo when it opened, he was on Serpent's show and made clear he was not running it. I don't agree with you that it was a mistake for his son to run it. Sometimes the best lessons come via first failing (if it did fail). Using your logic, if my daughter fails her first exam, it was a mistake for me to have sent her to school?

On the issue of the 500 homes and its financing: The idea was never to build all the homes at one time and then try to sell them. What would happen is lets say 20 homes would be built and then sold (perhaps even before completed) and the moneys would then rollover into financing additional homes. Its interesting that you bring up MBS. MBS a few years ago invested in Clico. Statutory corps, like MBS and SS, do not leave all of their cash simply sitting in some bank account. This is why the law mandates that they have a investment committee (needs to be properly staffed). CC Don't you think we would have more benefited if instead of investing in CLICO, MBS had invested in a local housing project?
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tenman

RE: Browne and the Numbers Game

#2 Voter » 2014-05-30 05:52

Chupz...UPP again with their nasty girly politics.
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Voter

RE: Browne and the Numbers Game

#1 Financial adviser » 2014-05-30 04:24

Because of a number of years at the failed Swiss American National bank this guy thinks he's qualified in all things financial. His arrogance comes through with his patronising words to others. With his history of failed businesses I would not trust him to invest a dollar for me much less to run my national economy. HIS FIGURES DO NOT ADD UP. He produced an article a few weeks ago which was mainly cut and paste work.
I have an international financial background and I can tell you that Browne's economic plan does not make sense, unless he's going to raid the statutory bodies or borrow heavily like in the 1980's to the early 2000's which eventually led us down/ and will lead us down a slippery path from which we are about to recover.
He needs to return to Economics 101.
Concerned citizen be prepared for the demons of hell to be released against you today for your logical reasoning and analysis.
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Financial adviser

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